Project 2025’s Impact on Immigration

In 2023, various members of the first Trump Administration, under the auspices of the Heritage Foundation, produced a document detailing their plan for the next conservative U.S. presidency. It's called the Project 2025 "Mandate for Leadership," and is essentially a blueprint for restricting virtually every form of U.S. immigration and creating an air of suspicion around all foreign nationals seeking to visit or live in the United States.

At one point, the Trump campaign attempted to distance itself from this document. Most analysts, however, point out that it is in keeping with the practices of the first Trump administration and written by the very people likely to handle immigration policy in the next one. It thus serves as a highly relevant predictor of what is to come.

Here, we will attempt to summarize the contents of this (extremely long) document with regard to immigration benefits and enforcement that affect everyday people and lives.

Eliminate Some Categories of Family Immigration

According to Project 2025, "chain migration should be ended while focusing on the ‘nuclear family.'" This can only mean eliminating certain family visa categories, but the document doesn't specify which ones. Assuming that "nuclear family" includes the husbands or wives and minor children of U.S. citizens and permanent residents, this could potentially leave out:

• parents of U.S. citizens (though the fact that Melania Trump's parents obtained U.S. green cards this way could temper the thinking regarding this category)
• adult or married children of U.S. citizens
• adult children of lawful permanent residents, and
• brothers and sisters of U.S. citizens.

Despite the connotations of "chain migration," many categories of family members were never eligible for green cards in the first place, such as parents of lawful permanent residents, grandchildren, aunts and uncles, and so on. (Also see Can U.S. Citizens Sponsor Extended Family Members to Immigrate?.)

Federal Public Housing

The Mandate seeks to "Ensure that only U.S. citizens and lawful permanent residents utilize or occupy federally subsidized housing." While that sounds straightforward enough, it gets less so when one realizes that many Americans (an estimated 1 in 12) live in families where one or more members lack lawful immigration status. The plan is to create a regulation that "would prohibit noncitizens, including all mixed-status families, from living in all federally assisted housing."

Immediate Departure for Immigrant Applicants Denied by USCIS

Project 2025 states, "At least until USCIS is caught up on all case backlogs, all applicants rejected for any benefit or status adjudication should be required to leave the U.S. immediately."

Given that case backlogs have been a reality of U.S. immigration processes for decades, it's hard to imagine USCIS ever getting caught up. The apparent result would be to end the right of appeal. So, for example, in a situation where a U.S. citizen is married to a foreign national and they fail to convince USCIS that their marriage is the real thing, the foreign spouse would lose the opportunity to appear in immigration court and present more evidence to defend against deportation, but would have to leave the U.S. straightaway.

Repeal Temporary Protected Status (TPS) Designations

Temporary Protected Status (TPS) is normally granted to people who happen to be in the United States when natural disasters, wars, or other violent events in their home country make it unsafe to return there. The Project 2025 document urges Congress to repeal the existing TPS designations. This would force the return home of people who are in the United States from:

• Afghanistan
• Burma (Myanmar)
• Cameroon
• El Salvador
• Ethiopia
• Haiti
• Honduras
• Nepal
• Nicaragua
• Somalia
• South Sudan
• Sudan
• Syria
• Ukraine, and
• Venezuela.

Whether the plan is to eliminate TPS entirely is not stated. Of course, since it takes U.S. government action to designate a country for TPS, the law could remain on the books even while the Trump administration adds no new countries to the TPS-eligible list.

Make Asylum Much Harder to Qualify For

Asylum protection is extended to people within the United States who fear persecution in their home country, in keeping with international law (specifically, THE 1951 CONVENTION AND THE 1967 PROTOCOL RELATING TO THE STATUS OF REFUGEES).

Under those international standards, asylum can be granted only if the persecution was based on one of five grounds: someone's race, religion, nationality, political opinion, or membership in a particular social group (PSG). Examples of currently recognized PSGs include tribal or ethnic groups, social classes (such as educated elites), family members of dissidents, occupational groups, LGBTI persons or those perceived as such, child soldiers, members or former members of the police or military (who might be targeted for assassination) and, in some cases, disabled persons as well as women.

The Project 2025 plan would diverge from international law by either eliminating the particular social group protected ground "as vague and overbroad" or creating a new definition that at a minimum states that persecution based on a failure of one's government to protect a victim from gang and domestic violence will not be sufficient. This would potentially eliminate up to one third of asylum claims, per U.S. government statistics.

The recommendations also include raising the standard for the legally required "credible fear of persecution" by applicants and adding new bars to asylum.

Eliminate Diversity Visa (the Lottery)

Current law allots 50,000 visas each year to people from countries that are underrepresented in U.S. immigration who can meet minimum educational or work requirements. (For details, see How to Enter the Diversity Visa Lottery.)

Project 2025 states "the diversity visa lottery should be repealed." Experts doubt that sufficient political will exists to push back on this, and many believe it will be among the first categories to go. How this would affect people chosen in the DV-2025 lottery (registration for which began in October 2024) is unclear and will likely depend on timing.

Eliminate U Visas for Victims of Crime Assisting Law Enforcement

The U visa was created out of public safety concerns, so that foreign-born victims of crimes in the United States can remain in the country and provide law enforcement officials with information to help apprehend and prosecute criminal offenders.

People approved for U visas are granted temporary legal status, which lasts up to four years but can be extended for "exceptional circumstances.". After three years, people in U status can apply for legal permanent residence (a "green card"). For details, see U Visas for Crime Victims Assisting Law Enforcement: Who Is Eligible.

The Project 2025 document says that "Victimization should not be a basis for an immigration benefit" and that even before it's removed from the law, U visa application eligibility should be "significantly" restricted.

The document suggests as an alternative the S visa. However, this visa applies only to foreign nationals coming to the U.S. to supply information to U.S. authorities about a criminal or terrorist organization, and so would not match the vast majority of U visa claims.

Eliminate T Visas for Victims of Human Trafficking

Currently, the T visa assists people who are present in the United States as a result of human trafficking and are cooperating with law enforcement officials. See Differences Between T and U Visas for more information on this.

Project 2025 would get rid of the T visa for the same reasons it gave for U visas, with the same suggestions that eligibility be significantly restricted until the law is removed from the books.

Eliminate or Significantly Reduce Foreign Student Visas

Project 2025 suggests that the U.S. president should, by executive order, direct Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and the Department of State to cut back on visas issued to "foreign students from enemy nations." (Presumably this would apply to F-1 academic, M-1 vocational, and J-1 scholar and exchange visitor visas.)

The meaning of "enemy" nations is left undefined. Although the Department of State (DOS) keeps a list of State Sponsors of Terrorism, it's not clear that this refers to the same list.

Expand Deportation Power of ICE Agents

The Project 2025 Mandate would make ICE officers "primarily responsible" for enforcing civil immigration regulations, including the civil arrest, detention, and removal (deportation) of immigration violators anywhere in the United States, without a warrant where appropriate.

At the current time, most foreign nationals in the United States (with or without a visa or authorization to be here) have a right to a hearing before an immigration judge before they are summarily removed. That would no longer be true, a prospect that a UNLV Boyd School of Law professor called "terrifying."

Even green card holders (lawful permanent residents) could apparently be deported without a hearing under this plan. Note that the existing grounds of deportation go far beyond crimes; for example, it's considered an immigration violation to fail to advise U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) when one moves. (See What If I Forgot to Tell USCIS of My Change of Address?.)

What's more, arrests and expedited removals could happen in any of the sensitive or protected zones that have been considered largely off limits in the past, such as hospitals, places of worship, and courthouses. The Mandate says ICE should "rely on the good judgment of officers in the field to avoid inappropriate situations."

The plan would also restrict or eliminate prosecutorial discretion," by which the overstretched immigration agencies normally put criminals and newer undocumented entrants highest on the list, while spending fewer resources on long-term residents who have U.S. citizen family members. (See Which Undocumented Persons Can Be Helped by Prosecutorial Discretion.)

Add Immigration Powers for State and Local Law Enforcement

The Mandate urges Congress to "unequivocally authorize state and local law enforcement to participate in immigration and border security actions." Given the complexities of U.S. immigration law, which is entirely federal, this could involve a massive training effort (and inevitable mistakes).

Make Fraud Detection USCIS's Focus

Currently, USCIS is considered the service arm of the DHS, responsible for processing green card applications for family members of U.S. citizens and residents, employees of U.S. business, refugees and asylees, and more. Detecting fraud has always been part of its job, including requiring fingerprint and other security checks before approving any applicant.

Nevertheless, Project 2025 says that the USCIS fraud unit's "priorities and resources should begin with this primary shift in focus to vetting and fraud detection."

Prioritize Denaturalization of U.S. Citizens

Project 2025 recommends that the USCIS denaturalization unit created during the first Trump administration and then ceased under Biden be reimplemented. Existing law allows the U.S. government to revoke U.S. citizenship for anyone who obtained it via fraud. (See When U.S. Citizens Can Lose Their U.S. Citizenship.) Stephen Miller recently affirmed that, ""Yes. We started a new denaturalization project under Trump. In 2025, expect it to be turbocharged."

Immigrant advocates worry that millions of U.S. citizens could be at risk of investigation or losing their citizenship owing to this initiative.

Eliminate Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA)

The document refers to DACA, which provides limited protection from deportation to foreign nationals who were brought to the U.S. as children and who have pursued an education and obeyed U.S. laws, as "unlawful." The first Trump Administration tried to end it, and the second one will doubtless do the same. This could affect an estimated half a million "DREAMers."

Rewrite Immigration Law to Create a Merit-Based System

The document advocates creating a legal structure prioritizing visas and green cards for highly skilled foreign nationals. It would also replace the existing employment visa program with one that awards visas only to the "best and brightest." Since that could be considered an apt description of the existing system, it's unclear what exactly will change, but likely the few visas currently available to unskilled workers would be eliminated.

Restrict H-1B Visa Eligibility

H-1B visas bring specialty workers, such as in the tech industry, to the United States on a temporary basis. The Mandate urges the next administration to "Transform the program into an elite mechanism exclusively to bring in the ‘best and brightest' at the highest wages while simultaneously ensuring that U.S. workers are not being disadvantaged by the program." What this means in practice is unclear, but it might lessen the number of visa approvals.

Cap and Phase Down the H-2A Visa Program

The H-2A visa lets employers bring in temporary, seasonal agricultural workers, after demonstrate that there are not enough U.S. workers who are able, willing, qualified, and available to do the work and that hiring the foreign workers will not adversely affect U.S. workers' wages and working conditions.

Project 2025 urges Congress to "cap this program at its current levels and establish a
schedule for its gradual and predictable phasedown" over the next 10 to 20 years. It recommends filling the resulting gaps in the workforce with U.S. workers, by creating "incentives for the industry to invest in raising productivity, including through capital investment in agricultural equipment."

Limit Grants of Work Permission

Under present law, limited categories of foreign nationals who are in the United States legally, usually on a long-term basis, can apply for work permission. (Tourists and other short-term visitors cannot.) Examples include spouses of J-1 visa holders, K-1 fiancé(e)s of U.S. citizens, F-1 students in cases of severe economic hardship or for training purposes, asylum applicants, and parolees. (For more, see What Is Form I-765, Application for Employment Authorization?.)

Project 2025 would limit work permission to only "certain categories of legal immigrants and non-immigrants." They do not say which ones. Given that Project 2025 seeks to eliminate parole as a category, other among the work-permit categories must be on the chopping block.

Implement Mandatory, Permanent E-Verify Program

E-Verify is a system through which U.S. employers can check Social Security numbers and confirm (or not) the immigration employment authorization of new hires. If the system can't find a match, the employee might have to meet with the employer and contact the federal government to clear up the discrepancy; or face termination. (For background, see What Employers Should Do After E-Verify Issues a Tentative Nonconfirmation for an Employee.)

Currently, only some states use the E-Verify program. Users of the system report problems, such as erroneous nonconfirmations of work authorization, system maintenance issues, and unavailability during U.S. government shut downs.

Condition Federal Legal Assistance to Immigrants on Reporting Undocumented Persons

Noting that the Department of Justice (DOJ) annually distributes approximately $7 billion in grants funds for legal assistance programs, the Mandate seeks to restrict grants to agencies that comply with "federal law regarding the exchange of information between federal and local authorities about an individual's immigration status."

Ramp Up Border and Internal Enforcement Efforts

Expect more wall-building, instant expulsions, militarization, workplace raids, and more under the Project 2025 proposal.

Trump has already appointed Tom Homan, one of the architects of the family separation policy carried out during the first Trump term, has already been appointed "Border Czar." When asked on 60 Minutes: "Is there a way to carry out mass deportations without separating families?" Homan answered, "Of course there is. families can be deported together." Homan also stated earlier this year, "I will run the biggest deportation force this country has ever seen."

The full details are more extensive than would fit in this article.

Review and Reverse All Actions Taken During Biden Administration

In a final catch-all, the document recommends doing a "complete audit of agency policies, memoranda, and management directives issued during the Biden Administration" with "rescission documents … prepared for issuance within the first few days of the incoming Administration."

The document adds that "regulatory documents should be drafted to review or reverse all regulations promulgated during the Biden Administration." That explicitly includes the Biden regulations on public charge, indicating that the plan is to return to Trump-era public charge regulations, which made it much harder for new immigrants to prove that their income or sources of support would be sufficient to allow for U.S. entry.

In addition, the plan includes examining and considering the withdrawal or overturning of every immigration decision made by Attorney General Merrick Garland.

Look to Applicant Fees to Fund Most Immigration Services

At the moment, applicant fees are a significant source of funding for U.S. immigration services, but not the sole source. Current typical fees for visas and green cards run from the hundreds to thousands of dollars. A major fee increase is likely to put immigration services out of reach for many. What's more, the document states, "the rule should drastically limit the availability for fee waivers," meaning that low-income applicants will have less possibility of qualifying for a reduced or lifted fee.

The document suggests that USCIS institute a "fee for asylum applications." In the past, asylum applicants were charged nothing for submitting an I-589, in recognition of the fact that many have fled persecution and are seeking protection. (Also relevant to their financial situation, they cannot apply for a work permit until they've won their case or waited several months with no decision on it.)

And More...

Expect more details on how this plan will be adopted or implemented in the coming weeks and months; as well as lawsuits from immigration advocacy groups to follow.